On May 19, 2008, Bill Kristol predicted in the New York Times that “a strong-on-national-security and supporter-of-middle-American-values Republican presidential candidate” will win the general election, even if the Democrats control Congress:

From 1968 through 1988, we had six presidential elections. During that time, Democrats won the Congressional vote by an average of more than 10 points; they controlled the House of Representatives for all of that period, and the Senate for most of it. But the Republican presidential candidate won five of those six contests — four of them (1972, 1980, 1984 and 1988) easily. This year’s election could see a return to this cold-war model — a strong-on-national-security and supporter-of-middle-American-values Republican presidential candidate prevailing, while at the same time voters choose a Democratic Congress. Last week’s developments — in West Virginia, Sacramento and Jerusalem — have increased the odds of such an outcome.