Kristol: Obama’s loss in West Virginia means he will likely lose the nomination
On May 19, 2008, Bill Kristol predicted that Barack Obama’s loss in West Virginia would decrease his chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination:
On Tuesday night, while the G.O.P. Congressional candidate was losing in a Mississippi district George Bush carried in 2004 by 25 points, Barack Obama was being trounced in the West Virginia Democratic primary — by 41 points. I can’t find a single recent instance of a candidate who ultimately became his party’s nominee losing a primary by this kind of margin. The crucial swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania (whose primaries Obama also lost to Hillary Clinton) have a fair number of West Virginia-type working-class, culturally conservative voters. The Obama campaign can’t be confident about his prospects there in the fall.
Kristol does not predict that Obama will lose the Democratic nomination. Rather, he suggests that Obama’s poor showing in West Virginia bodes ill for his general election prospects. How could his prospects in “the fall” be a reference to the primary?
Kristol’s final sentence again makes the connection between the West Virginia primary result and Obama’s general election prospects explicitly:
This year’s election could see a return to this cold-war model — a strong-on-national-security and supporter-of-middle-American-values Republican presidential candidate prevailing, while at the same time voters choose a Democratic Congress. Last week’s developments — in West Virginia, Sacramento and Jerusalem — have increased the odds of such an outcome.
Ben,
You’re right, of course. I had narrowly focused on this sentence: I can’t find a single recent instance of a candidate who ultimately became his party’s nominee losing a primary by this kind of margin.
Perhaps it’s fair to say both Kristol and I are a bit confused.
Comity!
Of course, Kristol DID predict that (1) Hillary would be the nominee and (2) she would do it by staying in the center and not edging to the left back in 2006.